Spain’s nascent economic recovery could be derailed by an upcoming referendum on the independence of a restive European region. Scotland’s, that is. This is the conclusion of François Cabau, a London-based economist with Barclays, among others. For Mr. Cabau, the underlying issue for Spain is, of course, not so much Scotland as it is Catalonia, where the local government is due to hold its own referendum on independence on Nov. 9. While few in Spain are concerned with the vote on Scottish independence due Sep. 18, the ripple effect on the Catalan debate may be significant—especially if the Scottish vote “yes.” Unlike t ... (full story)