In a series of recent FX notes, Goldman Sachs has flagged tomorrow’s ECB meeting as a catalyst for EUR downside, with a short-term target of 1.33 for EUR/USD and a range of 0.70-0.76 for EUR/GBP. Rather than rehash that view, GS today discusses the 'decision tree' that tomorrow represents and how EUR/USD could trade in different scenarios. The following are the key points in GS' note. 1- The rate decision will be announced at 12:45 London time. Given that a deposit cut was telegraphed a month ago, the main question is whether this decision will be in line with market consensus (a 10-15bp cut) or greater (say 20bp). ... (full story)