BNP Paribas' base case for the ECB policy meeting on Thursday calls for a package of measures that will bring front end rates lower and set the foundation for EUR weakness. This, according to BNPP, includes a 10 basis point cut in the main refinancing rate and in the deposit rate, a plan akin to a funding for lending scheme, and liquidity boosting measures. So, how can the ECB surprise the markets on Thursday? BNPP looked at the following 5 key EUR risks: 1- No cut in the deposit rate. Such an outturn would see EURUSD through 1.40, gaining traction with a move in EONIA. 2- Equity market rally. An upside EUR risk ... (full story)