Events that took place a century ago offer a salutary lesson for those who think the tension between Ukraine and Russia will remain a purely local affair. That's what people assumed when Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated at Sarajevo in June 1914. Seemingly small events can have dramatic consequences. Financial markets have yet fully to price in the risk of matters spiralling out of control. To be sure, shares in Europe had a bit of a wobble on Monday and the price of oil rose slightly, but Wall Street opened higher on the back of a bounce back in retail sales following the harsh winter in the US. Donald Tusk, ... (full story)