When I last spoke at this conference two years ago, the United States had just avoided a feared ‘double-dip’ recession. Europe was in the news, with acute concerns over the feedback loop between weak economies, bank asset quality and sovereign finances. China's growth had moderated, and many feared it would decline sharply. Since then, the world economy has continued its expansion. Growth in global GDP was a bit below trend in 2013, with reasonable prospects of some pick up this year. None of the downside scenarios that have exercised minds over the past couple of years have, as yet, come to pass. That doesn't mean ... (full story)