A discussion of what the ECB is likely to do at Thursday's policy meeting requires an appreciation of its challenges. There are four challenges that the ECB faces in nursing the "weak, fragile and uneven" recovery, as Draghi says. The two pillars of monetary policy, inflation and money supply, have been weak. Private sector lending has been contracting for the better part of two years. The key overnight interest rate, EONIA, has become more elevated and volatile as excess liquidity declines as banks borrow less from the ECB and repay LTRO borrowings. These challenges are taking place in a context in which the ... (full story)