Compared with many times past, the world has entered the New Year with global risks seemingly under control. The largest geopolitical tensions have dissipated. No one expects a sharp hike in the oil price, a superpower confrontation, a major interstate war, a rerun of the 2008-09 financial crisis, a giant hiatus in economic growth, the dissolution of a country, or the breakdown of a trading or currency bloc. Checks and balances against disasters are in place everywhere. Breathing a collective sigh of relief, market practitioners are appropriately buoyant. For a year now, stock market values have been pushed up above ... (full story)