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What Would It Take For EUR/USD To Hit 1.25 In 2014? - BofA Merrill
The USD has had a good although unspectacular year so far in 2013 – it is either up or small down against most major currencies. The USD is down about 2.5% against the EUR year to date. While this may not seem like very much, it is a big surprise given the very bearish EUR consensus at the start of the year (which we shared). What happened and what does the fact that EUR/USD has done better than expected tells us about its outlook in 2014? Events often look obvious in retrospect. EUR outperformance against the USD this year has been driven by the normalization of unsustainably high risk premium and positioning. ... (full story)
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