While most analysts remain bullish the USD, over recent months the greenback has disappointed against the G10 currencies, with the majors TWI trading essentially sideways since March. The narrow TWI is 2.7% above its level on 1 January but 1.7% below the level on 13 March. While it is clear to us that the dollar is indeed in the early stages of what is likely to be a multi-year bull market, with the real effective TWI bottoming in mid-2011, recent developments highlight the fact that markets rarely move in a straight line. While most analysts think of higher US rates as being dollar positive, it is clear to us that ... (full story)