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Why The Euro Is Strong & How To Position? - Barclays
Despite some green shoots, particularly in forward-looking survey indicators, the economic recovery across the euro area remains weak, with clear signs of a credit crunch to small businesses. While the ECB has signalled a dovish shift with its forward guidance, words may need actions to have a chance to succeed. EUR/USD remains close to the top of its yearly range – a function of the improved near-term cyclical outlook and uncertainty over Fed policy – but we recommend staying short into H2 13. We think there are two main reasons for the strong EUR performance, which we would fade. First, data have surprised to ... (full story)
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