It's jobs day tomorrow. Goldman predicts we'll see 200K new jobs, which is a bit above consensus. Here are the three reasons why, from economist Sven Jari Stehn: 1. Manufacturing survey employment indices. The manufacturing ISM employment index jumped almost 6 points to 54.4 in July, the highest level since June 2012. The regional Fed surveys also point to an improvement in manufacturing employment, with gains in the Empire and Philly Fed employment indices, and no change to the Richmond employment component. 2. Consumer confidence. Household perceptions of job availability continued to improve in July. The ... (full story)