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June FOMC: Hawkish/Dovish Signals To Watch - Barclays
June FOMC: Hawkish/Dovish Signals To Watch 1) Labor market: Were the Fed not to acknowledge the recent drop in payroll growth and focus only on the level of unemployment rate, it would be construed as hawkish; 2) Inflation outlook: FOMC participants are likely to revise their near-term inflation forecast lower (from 1.55% for core PCE for 2013 at the March FOMC meeting). But if their mediumterm forecasts are unchanged at 1.95% for 2015 or only slightly lower, it would suggest that the FOMC is not yet worried much about recent inflation trends. Characterizing long-run expectations (either market or their own) as ... (full story)