Markets have once again started pricing in some risk of a rate cut and many analysts changed their view after last week’s numbers. A majority of analysts now expect a refi rate cut from the ECB already at the meeting this week. We stick to our call and find it most likely that the ECB will keep rates on hold and instead come up with new measures to support bank lending to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). See more in our recent note with more details: “Weak PMIs will not prompt an ECB rate cut” A disappointment on the cards? We basically see three possibilities for the ECB on interest rates this week. Either ... (full story)