Our preliminary forecast for the change in April nonfarm payrolls is for a 150K gain, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 7.6%. Data released on employment for the month so far has pointed towards softer hiring activity – the Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s employment index rose 3 points to indicate a modest expansion, but the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey’s employment index fell nearly 10 points into contractionary territory. The general picture of business activity at the beginning of the second quarter has included much more uncertainty as the impacts from the sequester have started to ... (full story)