Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output declined by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in February after a decline of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in January 2013. The estimates suggest that the economy continued to flat-line in the first two months of this year and the negative output gap continues to widen. However, we do expect the economy to expand this year. NIESR’s latest quarterly forecast (published 5th February 2013) projects growth of 0.7 per cent per annum this year and 1.5 per cent in 2014. The National Institute interprets the term “recession” to mean a period when output is ... (full story)