The US dollar appears to have broken out of the ranges that seemed to dominated since mid-September against the major currencies, except the Japanese yen and Australian dollar. We had not anticipated the break out, believing that the resolution of the US fiscal cliff or the Spain/Greek issues in Europe were not imminent. Nevertheless, we did recommend that if the break did materialize, the price action ought to be respected, especially if it took place in the direction that was consistent with our understanding of the fundamental backdrop. We did not appreciate the extent to which investors and consumers were looking ... (full story)