At the start of 2012, the consensus view was for a mild recession in the Euro Area, deceleration of growth in emerging markets (with a soft landing in China) and below trend growth in the US. In late January, we ascribed an 80% probability that the US is on the brink of a recession with a revival of the housing sector being the wildcard that could lead to a self-sustaining recovery. We confirmed our recession call at the end of April despite better than expected macro data over January and February as this largely reflected an exceptionally warm winter. Despite the recent deterioration in data, consensus is hoping ... (full story)