Assigning specific causes to stock market swings is always a mug’s game, and doubly so in summer when volumes have cratered — especially this year. Intuitively we know this. Yet after this month’s rally, it’s still hard not to wonder just why the S&P remains up more than 11 per cent this year, and roughly 25 per cent over the past twelve months, given that the macro data has been mostly disappointed in the last few months and that the earnings picture has worsened (same with earnings guidance). There are exceptions, of course, with the most recent payrolls number and housing market indicators starting to improve. But ... (full story)