Expectations are swirling about tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and what it will bring in the way of further hints of the timing, nature, and size of the inevitable QE3. But there’s something else to speculate on whenever we have a known important event risk in the crosshairs: what market expectations have already priced in. There are endless permutations for the possible course of Fed actions in coming month, but there are three main drivers that are feeding into their monetary policy decision making: 1) Soft patch or recession? First, has the US economy merely hit a soft patch or is it tilting into a full-blown recession? ... (full story)