There is a perverse logic unfolding. Spain is the fourth of the euro zone members to require external assistance. Cyprus is likely to be next, especially if Russia does not come to its aid as it did last year with a $2.5 bln loan. That leaves Italy as the last of southern debtor countries to be standing on its own in the face of the end of a global credit cycle. Italy's problem is not a deficit. It is likely to be near 4% this year. It is also the only debtor to be running a primary budget (excluding debt servicing costs) surplus. The challenge stems from the accumulation of prior deficits. It debt is approximately 2 ... (full story)