In his latest note, Citigroup economist Michael Saunders, who works with Willem Buiter, argues that Greece will leave the euro on the first day of 2013. He says it's not 100 percent certain, but that it's the the current belief. In the intro he writes: There are many uncertainties, but in our new forecasts we assume that Greece will leave EMU in early 2013, followed by sharp currency devaluation, with a large drop in economic activity in 2013 and a modest rebound further ahead. We believe that sizeable adverse economic and financial contagion to other euro area countries will be unavoidable and this is already ... (full story)