Greece will probably default this year on European governments’ holdings of its sovereign debt, according to Jacob Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The country published the formal offer last week for its agreement to exchange bonds for new securities, with private- sector investors taking a loss of 53.5 percent. While the European Central Bank won’t take direct losses from the swap agreement, the writedown may make it more politically feasible for governments to lose money on Greek debt, Kirkegaard said. “The key thing about this is it’s a political issue, and therefore sequencing ... (full story)