A forecast is a forecast. In many cases, it’s not worth the paper it’s printed on. Some forecasts are more important than others, which is not to say they’re more accurate, just that they matter more. The Federal Reserve’s forecasts belong in this category. Unlike the average Wall Street prognosticator, the Fed has the unique ability to make its forecast become reality through its manipulation of the federal funds rate (the overnight rate at which banks lend to one another) and control of the monetary base (ARDIMTBA). That’s why the central bank’s forecasts, and what’s required to achieve them, matter. Starting with ... (full story)