EUR/USD could fall to $1.2450 before 2011 draws to a close if the $1.3000 level is decisively broken this week. Monday's weakness came after a sober reflection on last week's crucial EU summit, and the October 4 reaction low at $1.3145 is now within striking distance. Only history will judge whether this summit has managed to perform the unthinkable--to save the euro from the brink of extinction. However, the $1.3145 low is likely to be broken, and would bring the $1.3000 level into the immediate picture, where a short-term 1.618 Fibonacci extension target lies. A break below $1.3145 would confirm October's reaction ... (full story)