EUR/USD is continuing to trade within a short-term holding pattern, which is unwinding from last week’s sharp recovery (as six central banks, reduced their USD funding costs to ease the debt crisis). Our cycle analysis also suggests increased volatility within the first two weeks of December.  The recovery is still expected to be limited into 1.3610, then 1.3730 and perhaps even 1.3850-90. Probability also favours a bearish reversal at these levels for a resumption back into 1.3146 (04 th Oct swing low).  A sustained close beneath 1.3146 will re-establish the larger downtrend from April and target 1.3000 ... (full story)