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Bank of Canada preview: Why the BoC could open the door to a June rate cut
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5% next week, with the market (at the time of writing) only pricing about 4bp of easing – roughly equivalent to a 15% chance of a 25bp rate cut. Since the 6 March policy meeting, the economy has recorded strong jobs numbers and a larger than expected 0.6%MoM increase in GDP for January. But at the same time, inflation has surprised to the downside and the unemployment rate has actually increased as the labour force expands through high rates of immigration. As for sales, the BoC’s business survey reports the outlook remains “subdued”. ... (full story)
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post: FED'S LOGAN: WE CAN'T WAIT UNTIL INFLATION REACHES 2% TO CUT RATES. post: DALLAS FED'S LOGAN Q&A: ‘NO URGENCY’ TO CUT RATES; ‘HAVE TIME TO WAIT’; FED IN ‘FLEXIBLE POSITION’ #Logan #FederalReserve post: FED'S LOGAN: THE RISK OF CUTTING RATES TOO SOON IS HIGHER THAN BEING LATE.
Thank you for that kind introduction, Ellen [Meade]. It’s great to be here at Duke and to have a chance to talk about monetary policy with one of my favorite former Federal Reserve colleagues. Today, I’d like to discuss the progress we’ve made toward the Fed’s macroeconomic goals, as well as the risks ahead. The views I share are mine and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As you know, inflation surged in 2021 and 2022 on the heels of the economic disruptions from the pandemic. The annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) peaked at more than 7 percent, far above our 2 percent target. The FOMC responded by rapidly raising the target range for the federal funds rate—a total of 5.25 percentage points over a year and a half. These actions aimed to bring the economy into better balance so we can sustainably achieve both of our Congressionally mandated goals: stable prices and maximum employment. We have made substantial progress toward that objective. For the second half of 2023, PCE inflation was just 2.1 percent, annualized. Moreover, while the labor market cooled from its overheated pace in early 2023, it remained strong, with the unemployment rate holding below 4 percent. The combination of cooler inflation and still-strong economic activity in the second half of 2023 inspired optimism that the economy was on a benign track toward restoring price stability without too much cost to workers, businesses, families and communities. In the first two months of 2024, however, inflation data surprised to the upside. In the rest of my remarks, I’ll assess the economic outlook and risks in light of these recent developments. My bottom line is that while the benign path back to price stability rem post: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan: "I see meaningful risks" to bringing inflation back to 2%. "In light of these risks, I believe it’s much too soon to think about cutting interest rates." https://t.co/U4WYSVmNzf post: Fed’s Logan: FOMC Should Remain Prepared to Respond Appropriately if Inflation Stops Falling Fed’s Logan: Increasingly Concerned About Upside Risk to the Inflation Outlook
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has been trapped in very narrow ranges for the past few months. MUFG does expect a breakout with Fed rate cuts crucial in driving ...
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen kicked off a five-day trip to China on a geopolitical tightrope: affirming economic ties between the two countries while calling out concerns ...
Thank you for the invitation to speak to the Shadow Open Market Committee (SOMC).1 The SOMC has a distinguished reputation for fostering substantive analysis and debate regarding independent, transparent, and systematic approaches to central bank policymaking. It's a pleasure to join you today and to discuss some of the current issues facing central banks and monetary policymakers. In my remarks today, I will review some of the notable developments in the U.S. economy and financial system—as well as review key monetary policy actions and communications—since I joined the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and became a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in late November 2018. As I look back over these five-plus years, I will consider how a range of uncertainties and risks regarding the macroeconomy and its measurement have affected monetary policy decisions and communications. I will also highlight some considerations regarding financial stability risks and monetary policy. I will conclude with my own views on the near-term economic outlook, some of the prominent risks and uncertainties surrounding my outlook, and my views on the implications for monetary policy. post: FED’S BOWMAN: CUTTING RATES TOO SOON RISKS REBOUND IN INFLATION PRESSURES. post: FED’S BOWMAN: EVENTUALLY THE FED WILL CUT RATES IF INFLATION CONTINUES TO EBB. post: FED'S BOWMAN: WHILE NOT LIKELY, IT IS POSSIBLE THE FED MAY HAVE TO HIKE AGAIN TO COOL INFLATION.
Civil servants at the British government’s Office National Statistics will strike over demands that they return to the office at least two days a week. The Public and Commercial ...
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- Posted: Apr 5, 2024 11:36am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 3,355
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