The ECB needs more data to warrant the first rate cut, even if staff inflation forecasts are already roughly in line with the inflation target. Financial markets took the message in a dovish light. We continue to expect the first cut in June. • The ECB remains concerned about domestic price pressures and wage developments. • Staff forecasts are already broadly in line with the ECB’s medium term target. • We continue to expect the first rate cut in June, with risks now rather tilted towards a later than an earlier start, if inflation continues to surprise to the upside. • Financial markets took today’s message in a ... (full story)