We have had some surprisingly soft numbers out of the US this morning. The ISM manufacturing survey fell to 47.7 in February from 49.1 (consensus 49.5), contradicting the story told by the bulk of the regional manufacturing reports. That means we have had 16 consecutive months of sub-50 prints, which is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. The details show production contracted at its fastest rate since last July while new orders dropped back into contraction territory and the employment component dropped to 45.9, indicating some meaningful weakness – it has only been lower once (July last year) since ... (full story)