The Federal Reserve (Fed) left the door so wide open after the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in mid-December 2023, that markets have run ahead and have continued to push long-term rates lower since the decision was announced. Although 10-year Treasury yields have rebounded somewhat since then and are back above 4% today, they are much lower than they were late in 2023 when they closed in on 5%. Thus, markets ‘untightened’ monetary policy at the end of 2023 without any nominal change to the federal funds rate by the Fed. However, if we look at the real interest rate, tightening is still ... (full story)