Since March 2021, inflation has been above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. After peaking in June 2022, inflation—measured as the 12-month change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—trended steadily downward for a year. This decline reversed in July and August 2023, though some other measures of inflation continued to fall. Regardless of how we measure it, inflation remains high. Do these developments signal the end of high inflation is nigh, or will inflation instead settle at rates higher than in the period prior to the COVID-19 pandemic? In this blog post, I will provide relevant evidence to ... (full story)