Thank you, Professor Scobie. Thank you to the European Economics and Financial Centre for inviting me to speak and for the honor of referring to me as a "distinguished speaker." I have noticed that people started calling me "distinguished" only after my hair turned white. I suspect that "distinguished" is a polite way of saying you are old. My subject today is one I trust is of interest in this center of global finance—namely, the outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for monetary policy.1 It has been one year and seven months since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to rein in inflation, ... (full story)