The US personal income and spending report contains lots of numbers, but the August 0.1% month-on-month core PCE deflator print catches the eye. The consensus was 0.2% and we had been fearing a 0.3% outcome given what we saw from core CPI. There are quite a lot of revisions, but now we have three consecutive 0.2% or 0.1% MoM prints for what is the Fed's favoured measure of inflation. That should argue against the need for a fourth quarter rate hike, especially if we aren't going to get much data over the next month due to the strong likelihood of a government shutdown. The year-on-year rate remains elevated at 3.9%, ... (full story)