Rates have risen and curves have steepened markedly the last month. While some of the moves can be attributed by better economic data, increased attention on the funding needs of the US government has probably been a larger driver. Recession risks gone? While we were never in the camp believing in an imminent US recession, we have also been surprised by the recent strength of US economic data. The strong equity market performance gives little incentive for business owners to cut costs while at the same time lower headline inflation and still strong wage gains leaves more money in consumers’ pockets for discretionary ... (full story)