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USD/JPY nears 145 – is risk building for a reversal around these highs?
Talk of the Fed having more work to do on inflation has so far thwarted market attempts to price in an abrupt end to the tightening cycle. But it’s time to fade those warnings. It’s likely the Fed is done in the absence of a re-acceleration in price pressures. That’s a low-probability play, even with the recent pop in energy prices, meaning the question is not whether the Fed will hike again but when it will begin to cut rates, and how quickly? Right now, the inflation narrative continues to be dictated by changes in annual rates, rather than what happens from one month to the next. Assuming the trend doesn’t ... (full story)
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