Whether or not the Bank of England repeats June’s 50 basis-point rate hike in two weeks comes down to one number in the UK inflation data due on Wednesday. That number is services inflation, and it’s likely to stay at 7.4%, its highest level in over 30 years. This is the bit of the inflation basket that the Bank of England is most interested in – it tends to exhibit the most persistent trends, and is generally less volatile than the likes of energy or goods. Until now our base case has been for a 25bp rate hike when the BoE meets in early August. But unexpectedly strong wage data last week has moved the dial closer ... (full story)