Markets are expecting the Fed to hike rates by 25bps on May 3 to 5.125% from the current rate of 4.875%. However, one of the crucial factors for that rate decision will be how the US is managing inflation. This is what Wednesday’s print at 13:30 UK time is going to tell us. The market is expecting the headline CPI print for March to fall to 5.2% from 6%. The highest expectation from polled economists is for a 5.9% print. The lowest expectation is for a 5.1% print. So, that tells us two things. Firstly, inflation is expected to fall and that is positive for a slower rate path. Secondly, any print under 5.1% will be a ... (full story)