We suspected last month’s 9.5% collapse in the Index was an over-reaction but this month’s 18% rebound is a pleasant surprise nonetheless. It comes despite official confirmation in the survey week that Australia had experienced its first recession since 1992. Clearly this was ‘old news’ with respondents more focussed on the future. The rebound means the Index is now just 1.6% below the average over the six months prior to the emergence of COVID-19 in March. Recall that the sharp fall in August was in reaction to the deteriorating virus situation in Victoria which had seen the state government announce hard lockdown ... (full story)