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Goldman Sachs Says Defy ‘Mr. Market’ as Recession Risk Still Low
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is betting “Mr. Market” is wrong in its recession warnings. While sliding stocks, declining long-term bond rates and higher credit yields are sounding the alert, the New York-based bank’s economics team led by Jan Hatzius is more confident about the outlook for the developed world. Their model, based on a series of economic and market indicators, points to just a 25 percent risk of recession in the industrial economies in the next four quarters and 34 percent over the next two years. Both undershoot the average risk of the past 35 years despite the recent fears of financial markets. The ... (full story)