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US Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes, Jackson Hole, CPI, Philly Fed Svy, Housing Data
We look for an uptick in the NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) to 54 in August. By rising above 50 in July, the HMI surpassed an important threshold indicating more homebuilders view sales conditions as good than poor. All three index components rose several points each, resulting in a four-point increase overall. These sizable gains are unlikely to be matched this month. However, given a solid July payroll gain (including a 22K rise in construction payrolls) and generally improving labour market conditions, we project a one-point rise in builder sentiment to 54. The top-line Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely rose 0.1% ... (full story)