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Trading NFP: Scenarios & FX Plays - RBS
RBS trading desk economists forecast non-farm payroll growth of 180K in January, slightly below the listed consensus and well below December’s 292K surge. Scenarios and Trades: "250k and above, upside surprise on wage inflation – We do not have strong conviction in a higher USD prevailing even on an outperformance in US employment, especially if it comes without a clear uptick in wage inflation, which is a key variable in linking solid employment gains to an eventual pickup in inflation. But after two days of broad USD weakness, particularly vs. the commodity exporters, we think the USD could gain a ... (full story)