-
USA Recession Odds: 100%?
Here’s an interesting new data point that the St Louis Fed has put together to calculate recession probabilities: “Recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. “ What’s interesting about this index is the current reading. At 20%, the index is at a level that has ALWAYS been followed by a recession. As you can see below, the index has never approached 20% ... (full story)
- Comments
- Subscribe
- Comment #1
- Quote
- Nov 6, 2012 4:23pm Nov 6, 2012 4:23pm
- ryknowtrade
- | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 147 Comments
- Comment #2
- Quote
- Nov 6, 2012 4:47pm Nov 6, 2012 4:47pm
- Ill-b-back
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Get to the Chopper | 3897 Comments
Come with me if you want to live....
- Comment #3
- Quote
- Nov 6, 2012 5:19pm Nov 6, 2012 5:19pm
- Guest
- | IP XX.XX.10.4
- Comment #4
- Quote
- Nov 6, 2012 6:25pm Nov 6, 2012 6:25pm
- sidhujag
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Non-Member | 930 Comments
- Comment #5
- Quote
- Nov 6, 2012 6:30pm Nov 6, 2012 6:30pm
- Spreadbetter
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2012 | 3235 Comments
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..