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January S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index down 10.7 pct year-over-year
(updates with OFHEO release, analyst comments) WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The collapse of US home prices was spread across the whole country according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes released today, while the price index compiled by federal housing regulators showed a much less dramatic decline. The January S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city price index was down 10.7 pct from the year before, in line with expectations of a 10.5 pct decline. The January-to-December decline was 2.4 pct. The 10-city composite index, which contains more of the large 'bubble markets', was down a record 11.4 pct year-over-year and down 2.3 pct for the month. By contrast, US home prices were down 3.0 pct on an annual basis in the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) index estimate for January and off 1.1 pct for the month. There are several reasons for the different readings on just how bad the housing market may be. First, the OFHEO statistics are seasonally adjusted and the Case-Shiller numbers are not. As Robert Brusca of FAO Economics points out, housing statistics in the winter can be as much weather reports as economic reports. Second, OFHEO tracks only houses involved in Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac financing, which until recently was capped at 417,000 usd. 'Since higher-end properties tend to experience greater price swings, the OFHEO index is seen as a conservative estimation of the true swings in the housing market,' said Aneta Markowska of Societe Generale. Finally, even the broader 20-city Case-Shiller index, by its concentration on metropolitan areas, has more of the effect of housing bubbles bursting and more very low and very high priced homes. 'Housing markets are weakest for those price categories where subprime mortgages were used most,' according to Roger Kubarych of UniCredit. Prices fell in 19 of the top 20 markets tracked by Case-Shiller, with 10 posting double-digit declines and 13 posting their single biggest monthly declines. 'Unfortunately it does not look like early 2008 is marking any turnaround in the housing market, after the declining year recorded throughout 2007,' says David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. 'Home prices continue to fall, decelerate and reach record lows across the nation. No markets seem to be completely immune from the housing crisis.' None of the metro areas had a monthly increase and only one, Charlotte, North Carolina, managed a meagre 1.8 pct annual increase. 'The year-over-year rate of decline on a nationwide basis is now greater than seen at the end of the 1990-91 recession,' said MFR economist Joshua Shapiro. 'With supply overhang enormous and mortgage financing tougher to obtain, home prices are going to decline considerably further in the quarters ahead, most likely to a double-digit pace on a yearly basis before not too long.' Former bubble markets were closing in on 20 pct annual price drops in February. Miami and Las Vegas were the worst performers, both falling 19.3 pct. Phoenix was a close third with prices off 18.2 pct. Monday, the National Association of Realtors existing home resales report for February showed a 2.9 pct increase in sales, but the median price of a single-family house was down 8.7 pct year-over-year and the downward price pressure from the inventory overhang, at 9.2 months, was still substantial. Analysts warned against confusing a one-month boost in the volume of sales with any near-term possibility of prices rebounding. In fact, 'falling home prices were a key factor in the 2.9% rebound in February existing home sales,' said Ashraf Laidi of CMC Markets. [email][email protected][/email] dem/tlm/slj/dem/slj/dem/wash/slj COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News.