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Jobs Report Seen Confirming Fed’s Growth Narrative
The Federal Reserve is working off of two narratives right now. Thursday’s U.S. jobs report will inform one but not the other. The first narrative, its baseline, is built around the first half of the year. It goes like this: The economy stumbled in the first quarter, thanks to one-time shocks including bad weather, port shutdowns on the West Coast, statistical mis-measurement, a sharp drop in the price of oil and increases in the value of the dollar. As officials see it, the economy regained its footing in the second quarter, setting the stage for more robust growth in the second half of the year, continued ... (full story)