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Trading NFP: How To Sell A Spike In EUR/USD?
Looking ahead, investor focus shifts to Friday’s US labour data. At 245k (cons: 235k, prev: 257k) our economists expect that February payrolls will surprise positively and that it is expected to be reflected in a further falling employment rate (CA-CIB forecast: 5.6%, cons: 5.6%, prev: 5.7%). If so, investors’ Fed rate expectations will continue to be supported to the benefit of the USD. However, it must be considered too that Friday’s outcome is subject to several downside risks. According to our FX Execution Mapper payrolls should produce an expected trading range of around 80pips. Recent history has shown ... (full story)