Hero calls followed by margin calls...
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A Rising Tide Lifts Most Boats
The most important new development to consider when setting the global macroeconomic outlook for 2015 is the 40% drop in spot oil prices over the last three months. Oil price drops of similar or greater magnitude have occurred several times over the past 30 years, coinciding with major economic recessions in some cases (1991, 2001, 2008) and faster global growth in other cases (1993, 1998). So, what does the current drop in oil prices mean for global growth in 2015? To answer the question, we must first determine whether the current bear market in oil is a demand-driven bear market or a supply-driven bear market. ... (full story)