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The First Italian Exit Polls Are Out
And here we go with the first Senate exit polls from RAI: BERSANI 36%-38%, BERLUSCONI 30%-32% GRILLO 17%-19%, MONTI 7%-9% In other words, Berlusconi+Grillo may have a majority, yet due to the way the Senate seats are assigned, the current outcome may be sufficient for Bersani. As a reminder, the Senate majority needs 158 seats for outright majority:
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Posted: Feb 25, 2013 9:01am
Submitted by: FF News
Category: Medium Impact Breaking News
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8,506 Views
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186 Comments
Yigal5766, khol_hands, skywriter911, skyboys007, Guest, Guest, trumank(2), albertoe, Guest, cecchino, Bakker(2)(3)(4), MultiLion, bd pips, Guest, pip256, PopatJunk, jegas, str8bullish(2), MichuC, Ramane Ara, Squeeze(2)(3)(4)(5)...(29), Idoscon, Rasfilmon, chukuweike, y2j2008, Guest, Maso(2)(3)(4)(5), rigpa(2)(3), alimm0f(2), Casimir(2), Loadedgun(2)(3)(4)(5)...(23), Fx Hiflyer(2)(3)(4)(5)...(17), Nut, Spreadbetter(2)(3)(4)(5)...(13), Guest(2), jaygee(2)(3)(4)(5)(6), Guest(2), Guest, BenMario(2)(3)(4)(5)...(12), Mong00se(2)(3), Guest(2)(3)(4)(5)...(10), Info Seeker(2)(3)(4)(5)...(10), Guest, Guest, Groovy, frx_trader(2)(3), Timetraveler(2)(3), Guest, Guest, Guest(2), regme, Guest
Yigal5766
52 posts
khol_hands
300 posts
skywriter911
4 posts
skyboys007
413 posts
Guest
IP XXX.XX.12.171
Guest
IP XX.X.167.40
trumank
14 posts
albertoe
31 posts
Guest
IP XXX.XX.7.137
cecchino
80 posts
Bakker
573 posts
MultiLion
10 posts
bd pips
37 posts
Guest
IP XXX.XXX.192.18
trumank
14 posts
pip256
47 posts
that's what it is for the Euro
PopatJunk
60 posts
jegas
130 posts
str8bullish
187 posts
MichuC
1 posts
117
Ramane Ara
63 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
Idoscon
30 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
Rasfilmon
68 posts
My assumption is mainly due to market manipulation, the fact that it started up trend market with the market gap ( market manipulation using physiological techniques )
chukuweike
9 posts
y2j2008
37 posts
120 could be more reliable
Guest
IP X.XXX.1.215
Result = Italy is not governable
= Government does not stand a long time.
= No significant change in the European scenario
= New elections within one year.
EUR / USD = depends on European policies and not from Italy
Maso
559 posts
Maso
559 posts
str8bullish
187 posts
rigpa
550 posts
rigpa
550 posts
alimm0f
100 posts
rigpa
550 posts
Maso
559 posts
alimm0f
100 posts
Casimir
40 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
Maso
559 posts
Maso
559 posts
Nut
125 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Good to take breathers else one becomes over confident and the results can be nasty - quite a bit in the pot though and not a day trader so I can watch for a bit. But my TP was also estimated as a return line (short - medium term) I have a way in which pivots are confirmed after about 4 hours of flows. If I think it is a confirmed pivot then I will know what to do - but I will only trade if the reverse amplitude estimated suggests a swing trade so for now I am watching the sinusoids and calculating the differentials to solve for the chaotic variables I need to see to provide guidance.
Like you said it is simple math.
Spreadbetter
1,270 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Those who recall earlier posts by me, know that I have consistently exposed these and other aspects of my chart reading which is not based on technicals and certainly ignores fundamentals as completely incompetent.
Just to clarify.
BTW: To get exceptional results one needs to break new grounds. If you do not understand an approach at least know enough about its basis before making public statements which may deny others knowledge they could use.
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
i am a day trader but i am not rigid ..i am looking for a long term trade and the time and numbers seem right......i shorted gold twice yesterday...but i am not planning to take any position today even though i was dying to buy at today's low for euro..........do let me know when you work something ..il be extremely grateful ..thankyou
Squeeze
654 posts
Perhaps a few of you would benefit from doing some research and looking at the returns FX hedge funds make when running the most sophisticated models imaginable.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=9301
http://www.forexrealm.com/technical-...sine-wave.html
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
i always read the articles you post......due to my lack of knowledge couldnt grasp all of it...but i see what you are talking about
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Certain assumptions are for instance curious and laughable - for example, the idea that hedge funds or so-called institutionals already have employed the best modellers on earth and reached the limit of knowledge about market modelling techniques there is to reach asserted by those untrained and unskilled at modeling is a case in point and it is to me funny and pretty revealing of the shallowness of any mind given to such thinking. I would ignore such a person for always and never ever pay attention to him forever - in my parlance RIP.
The reason is of course obvious not least of all is that new things come to creative minds every second of the day and out there, there is always hope because of this fact and thus one should have faith in the human spirit (some of such creative minds in different fields are unemployed as we speak and unknown - only to be taken up once they come to light by these heavily capitalized institutions in the case of the forex - though not everyone might oblige in the forex since for instance with what I know I do not need to work for no twerp).
However, as any skilled modeller knows the hedge funds and other institutionals even central banks use deterministic models which if one holds a basic understanding of math will just laugh off. Pity people engage in discussions way beyond their intellectual accessibility - but worse make definitive statements as if they knew what they were talking about especially providing examples to buttress their positions that reflect an IQ that qualifies them as exceptionally dull and brand them as persons to be ignored in the areas to which they speak.
Squeeze
654 posts
An older gym has had a refurb and some brand new equipment delivered, all the relative new gym users are looking through the windows and getting really excited at the gym opening and the prospect of getting to grips with the new equipment. Some laser their focus on one of the new contraptions. Some of them believing that this one new piece of equipment will drastically change their shape (it's usually the core they want to change if they've let themselves go). One of the older gym trainers walks past, smiles and shakes his head as he finally opens the doors, "nothing ever changes in this business, the new equipment won't do the job for you, nothing will ever replace hard work and having the desire to improve. Anyone can radically change and improve if they're physically competent. Barbells, kettle bells, dumb bells, machines..fashions come and go, but the basics haven't changed for decades."
What are our basics as traders that will remain constant through out the ages? And like our old style gym can you earn a dime from the most basic set ups, using the constants day after day on the most crude equipment?
Squeeze
654 posts
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
you are experienced and learned.....MBA in economics and what not...it is easier for you to decide what to study and from whom .....i am just acca qualified and planning to start my mba in a year or two....plus i am still new in this business ...and newbies like me would want to pick up things from wherever possible..
it is simple math for you...but alien language for me :P
Guest
IP XX.XXX.3.34
I hope this is clear.
Loadedgun - BTW I am signed in as guest because I am airborne on a private flight for a short-trip in-country and should be on ground in say 75 minutes.
jaygee
1,990 posts
Guest
IP XXX.XX.187.231
Guest
IP XX.XXX.3.34
For instance when EW and co traded there were no electronic charting packages so is it wrong for us now to use the new tools? There was also no FF to reveal the actions, thoughts and behaviors of a cross section of traders. Does the existence of FF not change the dynamic of trading you think? There were no algos only a short while ago etc. I really do not get it.
I also agree with loadedgun - creating a model and deploying it in electronic is not capital intensive it is knowledge intensive. So any of us with the knowhow can blow an institution away. Do not forget that retail is new and that means not so long ago many of the traders and would be traders had no chance - now that they do expect new and different angles - even revolutionary tools and approaches from this segment - if you did not believe this why did you start trading in the first place. If you feel so inferior why not simply leave your money in some trust fund or savings accounts - why do you take the risks you take. Just curious really. Cheers
Guest
IP XX.XXX.34.145
Squeeze
654 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
jaygee
1,990 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
Guest
IP XXX.XX.187.231
Squeeze
654 posts
BenMario
160 posts
Majority of the successful traders are hedge fund managers with billions of dollars at their disposal which is NOT their money who can easily manipulate the market. Worst case they get fired and thats about it. When they are trading with their OWN money, its a whole new story.
Mong00se
81 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
We're not debating institutional level traders here, I'm focusing on retail, that was clear so why you introduced such a diversion is beyond me. Have you worked for a fund or at institutional level? Unlikely, if you did you'd know how serious managing others' money is and how minimising risk is everything.
WRT retail traders my own experience is that the successful retail traders all operate/trade using very similar methods and have done for a decade or more. Less than one in ten recreational traders are successful and that success is very modest.
Bakker
573 posts
Did you ever look at a single bar or candle to make a judgement about which way the market is going to move?
I'll appreciate each and every reply. Thank you.
jaygee
1,990 posts
jaygee
1,990 posts
BenMario
160 posts
I would love to read your book how successful retail traders ALL operate with similar method. Given your age, there is possibility that you been with nothing less than 10,000,000 retails traders to come up with such statement. Have you ? just curious....
Squeeze
654 posts
The common visualisation is that they'll be hunched over a bank of monitors playing their keyboard like an axe guitar, when in reality I'd say they spent less than an hour a day involved in trading and with the advent of mobile apps that could be cut down even further.
Bakker
573 posts
This was a very important question. One day when I'm done with trading I will show you in detail how much this really matters.
I'm an old timer, so you don't have to wait long. Ha, ha!!
BenMario
160 posts
Guest
IP XX.XXX.160.145
One without the other has no meaning.
Squeeze
654 posts
BenMario
160 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
jaygee
1,990 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
There are in fact here two kinds of contacts those who know me, those (right here on FF) who exchange specific views on trades with me in private and those who in fact have seen my tools and at least one who uses them to very good effect. It cannot be everyone that I shall expose everything to - I have a responsibility to myself. But my intentions are good the tools and applications are real and they work making money for a lot of people and bringing the wow to the minds of many when they see the results and precision.
Now there are those who say it is a ruse there is nothing like that as in fact there cannot be - that in their experience (as if their experience is not just ordinary and trite) it is impossible. Should I break a sweat on account of those or should we just laugh at them - that is those who know how wrong and in fact silly those assertions sound. I guess it is up to others who are close enough to know the truth to respond - as for me the more of these caustic statements by absolute luadites I hear here the more convinced I am to speak out for those who dare to break the mold and have the brains and the more determined I am to ensure that nothing comes from me to the public domain that will help these ego trippers out of their misery. I am not being mean here - I doubt that anyone receiving the kinds of comments I get on occasion will be more charitable knowing that in fact traders such as are in the majority on this are so selfish and conceited they are best left to their current design - lest they boast and harass others on energy that someone else spent to make things better.
But what a laugh - and what a huge joke - the extent of ignorance and backwardness about. Happy trading to all good intentioned traders - meanwhile I made a killing in gold while airborne waiting for the Euro to move next and move it will but I am no longer free to say where.
Mong00se
81 posts
Guest
IP XX.XXX.160.145
But one needs to find some way to assess what you see going on in front of your own face, then believing in it enough to take action. Over time some method you improvise from origin will be the one you stay with.
But the learning curve takes time, so trade small, make a lot of mistakes,(which you will), learn from the mistakes, and do not drive into a tree while you do this.
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Of course the edge here is that it is far more profitable than anything you ever saw - far more comfortable to apply and indeed it changes ones whole perspective on trading. How would I know - because I believed in the same things you just outputted here and I know anyone thinking that way will remain nothing but a would be trader for the most part. Let us face it - those who really know do not say much. They are too busy making money - I would have shut up by now but many tell me to keep it at it and I see their point. Had I known to disregard conventional wisdom early (such as you have actually offered) - I would have been the better for it. The time wasted and money lost trying to trade by stupid things like fundamentals, silly crossover systems etc was really stupid and yet I thought it was my fault that it was because I lacked skill and ability and all I had to do was up those. Finally I asked the question - how does the market work? How does price move?
It was in answering those questions that I found the path and realized how hopeless it was for all others on my old path. That is why I talk at all. Soon I will stop altogether - because when you think about it why should I care? I got all I need and certainly I do not need aggravation from social and intellectual inferiors - persons not given to exploring ideas but insisting that everyone remain in the same caste because it gives them comfort that it is just a business where everyone is failure anyway - well I am not.
PS: Also there is no credibility in the analogy of driving a car - they are not parallels and if you do not know that then it must be the case that you have no real ambition to trade for a living or that you have any experience actually trading.
Squeeze
654 posts
Guest
IP XX.XXX.160.145
After that comes tending the garden when in a trade, and money management parameters prior to putting a trade on.
Beyond that learning how to keep your decisions from being affected by emotions, would go a long way to removing the roadblocks to success.
BenMario
160 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
When you hear mean reversion what do you think is at the core? It is tough for people to use crossovers because they usually have no background on reversion structures and cannot tell per period or time frame what the market limits are. So yes sell when 13 MA crosses 25 MA down blah blah blah but what you do not know is that there are shorter term oscillations taking place (read shorter wavelengths) so without a clear understanding of how price moves such as I have been outlining - you have said nothing. No one who went to babypips would say they did not read crossovers etc so try something new and this is why and where the math resolves so much. Badmouthing the maths to which I speak is a real disservice not only is it ignorant of those who do so but they actively discourage others from breaking new grounds - so sad. Ditto for trend lines - which are worse because they are statics - in fact from reading this post I conclude that you sir are a noob.
BTW: At least one dude here deeply in debt by now I suspect given the preponderance of serial bad calls associated with him would love something simple to get him back on his feet - but just goes to show nothing is simple in the forex because until you understand the structure of fractals you understand nothing.
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
This crap talk about money management is crap talk. If you do not know direction no matter how careful you are you will end up wasted. More important to know direction or instantaneous momentum before worrying about silly money management techniques - the best defense against losses is a profit buffer and not a stop loss order.
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Guest
IP XX.XXX.160.145
Money management is about letting the probability of the method work out. It serves no other purpose then to prevent catastrophic loss from which an account cannot recover.
Information was free, if you do not have use for it, get over it and move on.
For anyone interested, you will learn more about trading by putting up a chart and putting in the time to find out what happens. Put some money on the line so when the mistake happens you will feel some pain and get the message not to do it again. Learn to be self reliant on your own ideas, it is the only way to reach your goal.
As a wise man said "You can learn a lot by watching"
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
if you do stop posting...sadly the whole point of ff will end atleast for me.......too bad i started trading too early..should have completed my research before jumping in.....it is still gambling for me..
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
dont wanna speak for loaded...he has said everything already ......but you are still without numbers my friend...and he has provided enough numbers already ..(talking about last few months)......so please get your facts straight
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
BTW: What have you said here that babypips did not drill into everyone trading now with more detail, examples and exercises - what really is your point?
Guest
IP XX.XXX.160.145
Self taught trading remains the best way to learn. Learning by finding out what works for the way an individuals mind works is done by trial and error over time. No magical answer, just endless hours in front of a screen reading price and what it does.
Market behavior is repetitive, there are only so many ways for price to act. After enough screen time those patterns become repetitive enough so that the individual learns to recognize them as they occur. Then takes action on what ever the prior learned outcome normally was. That establishes the basis for probability.
After enough time the trader will be able to even drop all the lines and indicators and just trade from the screen.
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
don't know why you said that you are not 'free' to mention where.............................a lthough i understand your point of not spoon feeding .......your precision does amaze a little too much at times....how did you know what to do in gold?..i sold on stupid data for 30 pips...then bought twice for 50 pips more..but joined the rally late.. went with the flow listening to the bern ..your style is 'sugar free' ..
Squeeze
654 posts
Info Seeker
23 posts
It goes without saying that what you talk about is based on truth. As a physicist and an avid believer in chaos theory, I can't ignore repeated attempts to understand just what makes the markets move.
There are many theories but it is obvious that finding out is not made to be discovered so easily. You piqued my curiosity when you mentioned that fractal geometry comes to play with it and hence sinusoid might be a great tool to employ to forecast direction.
I fail to understand some folks here who don't think of the importance of picking the right direction for without it one would be lost as a trader. You see congestion in the market (an accumulation phase) and then the real money is in correctly picking the right direction knowing WHAT was being accumulated (buy or sell order flow). This of course may apply to day trading but it could be true for longer periods enough to get that profit edge and hence the SL being hit is not something that would be justified by "my system told me to do that." I'm sorry but an understanding of what makes the market move is the foremost important condition to be born in mind before pulling the trigger on any given trade.
I have been a defender of yours against all the naysayers who simply don't grasp what you're bringing to the table, a real shame that they don't have an open mind to get their horizons in order.
I don't know how to get in touch with you, but I would consider it an honor if you were to take me under your able wings. Being a math and science buff I may even help you with refining your research. I am not interested in signals but I am very much hungry for the knowledge you have acquired, it will be a privilege to get to know you and follow your method of approaching the market.
Please PM so I can get started being a humble student of yours.
With many thanks,
John
Squeeze
654 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
What happens is that the regression midline provides the main sinusoid allowing me to read off of the chart a market equation or polynomial function of a certain degree - (and if you can read and interpret polynomial functions and their graphs you would know that apart from other things you get to read the midline for end behaviors). Taking this and other sinusoids I have implemented along with tools I have created to complement my regression engine - I can tell exactly what the direction will be and where the wave or flow amplitude will end. That is about it.
BTW: I did not create the regression engine I was looking around on FF one day and chanced on a thread that focused non linear tools (almost all I use and have put together come from scouring FF threads - there is so much knowledge on FF it is amazing). But of course I was deeply read in chaos math, fractal geometry, fractal wave theory, sinusoidal functions (destructive and constructive interference etc) that I was able to model my ideas exactly to create the things I wanted. So can anyone with the time and mind to doing so. What is important is I rejected the stupid ideas around about how the market works and pitched my tent with MR and then found an even more sophisticated way to implement MR via Non linear regression engines.
Info Seeker
23 posts
Extremely interesting. We physicists always believe we can get anything in the world into an equation. Usually a polynomial. It is just how nature works. God in his grace perfected how matter and energy interact with each other in the space-time continuum and it is via these equations that we know how to deal with the world and discover newer and better things. Think in lines with GUT (Grand Unification Theory).
It is our final objective to put things together so we can see clearly where things are going. Random theory, chaos theory, string theory and most importantly the uncertainty principle help a great deal to achieve that.
When Squeeze talks about sentiment in the market, he shows a clear understanding of the human factor (psychological and otherwise). But what he doesn't show is an understanding of where sentiment comes from. Sentiment can change in a heart beat, so how would you determine direction and entry with relative certainty.
You see, there are forces that govern the universe and they interact with each other to form life as we know it. Every one of us has a halo of these energy lines derived from these forces that bind us to each other and to the world. Sentiment is no stranger to this. You understand the principles behind this and you may be on the right track to understand why markets move. You simply don't go on Facebook or Twitter to get Sentiment like some do. That is an absolute trap created by Market Makers to lure you in and part you from your cash.
At any rate, I think that yours, Loaded, is a unique and certainly very interesting method to approaching market behavior and once again I would ask that you would consider PMing me as I have no other way of contacting you in private. Or maybe I am missing something since I am new to this forum.
Guest
IP XXX.XXX.126.16
Guest
IP XX.XXX.3.189
Saludos
Squeeze
654 posts
Groovy
54 posts
Guest
IP XX.XXX.160.145
It takes a long time to let go of the why part of a trade that is so common to most perception, but in the end all we have is a probability of outcome and to trade in a manner that allows that probability to manifest.
good luck to you.
Squeeze
654 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Will be in touch but you got to give me a lot of time as I never take on more than I can handle and if I am to be honest my plate is full right now. So please do not be offended if you do not hear from me straightaway. Right now I am going to be a bit tied up and you appreciate how trading goes as I know you do you know one needs focus and little things can throw one off.
In any case John yes from your opening statement I knew you understood chaos because you said "It is just how nature works" - clearly from the singularity the world expanded according to God's fractal design of all things. Let there be light was the instruction and bang all things came into being (hope you like cosmology and sound since they are the only two aspects of physics that give me the vibes plus I am a professional musician and so sound and waves have always been a concern). We will talk some more. Clearly like some guest alluded above the concepts are way beyond simple imagination and until and unless one has some idea of what a fractal is or how it is that chaos simply emanates from the fact that initial conditions cannot be specified for the system of interest to absolute infinity - it gets really tough to catch on the rest. Cheers
frx_trader
928 posts
Timetraveler
480 posts
Physics? Space-time continuum? Unified theory applied in trading?
Extremely interesting? And on top of that a physicist talks about the grace of God?
My man! Where were you hiding? You and I will surely need to talk soon.
BTW. I didn't regret so far holding eurusd and something tells me I won't regret it in the near future either simply because price refuses to make that simple move. But I may be wrong. Whatever the case profits are already locked
Timetraveler
480 posts
Guest
IP XXX.XX.119.228
Info Seeker
23 posts
No problem, I understand as even though I can walk and chew gum at the same time, I'd rather allocate enough focus, energy and time for everything worthy of them as a separate event. That's the only way to get goals achieved, otherwise one would be in a number of events (important though they may be individually) but never seeming to get ahead in any of them. Chaos (LOL) in its true meaning.
Oh some will say we can do multitasking. That is true. However, I've yet to meet a happy, healthy and sane multitasker. We can manage everyday life tasks simultaneously, sure, it has become part of our being, but never the tasks that in themselves require that laser sharp focus, unless of course, you have a team in which you have absolute confidence and then you designate responsibilities which means, congratulations, you've just become a manager who will probably enjoy success but who will also lose that sweet feeling of individual achievement.
Keep your focus on what you deem requires it, Sir. Whenever you're ready I'll be looking forward to your communique. Thank you.
Guest
IP XXX.XXX.183.221
Info Seeker
23 posts
In scientific fields, it is usually NOT the theories themselves that turn out to be what is useful to us but rather the application of these theories in something of value. Many scientists spend a lifetime to formulate a theory but not live long enough to see it become a law the use of which can be applied in everyday life.
I believe your problem with Loaded is not about his applications or methodology but rather the personality. He may come out to you as arrogant whose nose is in the sky, but that is just false. You see, it is about being tolerant. No matter how much one tries to convey an idea which in his/her own opinion could help make changes in important matters, being met with intolerant people not willing to change anything using sarcastic comments to put him/her down will eventually lead to him/her being intolerant also. That can manifest itself in a number of ways one of which is to think that these people don't understand, and if their methodologies are based on failing results that prove themselves over and over then he/she can also call them stupid and be sarcastic of them.
Give the man a chance and you'll discover what he's bringing to the table is very much worth studying in the minimum. Who knows, if you then like what he says you may even benefit from it materially via an alternative and different approach to trading.
My friend, if we just listen to each other (rather than just hearing each other) and have enough tolerance this world can be a much better place. I believe your sincerity and I thank you for defending people's credits as they should always be defended, but I kindly ask you to give the man a chance. You may be surprised.
If for whatever reason you don't grasp something or feel you're missing something then by all means ask. You'll find that when you start getting the idea, you'll be forced to delve deep into it and hence you've just expanded your horizons. That is nothing to snare at.
I hope I have gained you as friend and that you don't think of me as a preacher. My intent is to give you my opinion of what loaded's approach can do to trading.
I wish you the best.
Squeeze
654 posts
Info Seeker
23 posts
Where was I hiding? Right here my man. Truth be told I was lurking in this forum for a number of months now, browsing, reading, learning, enjoying and sometimes outright laughing. This is a very good forum that encompasses everything you need to understand traders' mentality and approaches.
Now that I have chosen to participate and interact (time allowing) I think that it will be even better once I get the mechanics of handling the site from being a reader to being an active member. Just like anything else it'll take time but I'll grasp it soon enough. I still don't know if the forum has the capability of updating automatically. I mean if I commented to you and you responded do I have to refresh the page to see your response (as I am doing now) or is there an RSS capability that will update the page once a new comment is added? I still have some homework to do on the mechanics of the site.
As to the main subject, yes, a physicist who is also a believer. I know it does not compute but why shouldn't it. I don't believe in science vs. religion but rather in the science-religion fusion. They are one and the same. Each explains the other flawlessly if you were to remove the brain barrier (not the brain). It is a tall subject that this forum is certainly not a venue for. But what this forum is about goes directly into both avenues and that is what I will try to contribute to help my fellow traders. Science (or scientific rules) govern everything we know of in the universe (including the trading universe). I know this is a heavy statement for some traders but it is a fact. The market is not random. It is in fact cyclical, harmonic and deliberate. The other side (religion) gets into the psychology and discipline of trading. The more disciplined you are (patience is a virtue) the more your probability of success in trading when you apply the proper methodology. So as you see the two for me go hand in hand. It just requires an open and tolerant mind and to be humble for we have not cracked the code yet and we have just scratched the surface.
I look forward to communicating with you and hope it will prove beneficial to both of us and this forum.
regards,
John
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
just saw your post....haven't read the rest of the posts yet............anyway..in the beginning i used to do the same...when i started reading his long posts i started making sense out of it.............he has on numerous occasions talked about direction ..when euro was in 29 28 area ..he was the only one talking about euro exploding upwards....i remember people telling him that his system can only show euro bull etc etc....i remember once he was long on euro and it turned from 1.3 area...and everyone became a pain in his ass..but he took the criticism ..and euro broke the resistance in the next wave.........but you know when he really started freaking me out is when he started giving exact no.s of retracement and bounce backs and what not ..he has helped me get out of stupid trades so many times.......there are alot of things im not mentioning here...but the important part for you is that either this market is manipulated and loaded knows someone on the inside ...or his calculations really work..
frx_trader
928 posts
Guest
IP XX.XXX.142.34
Squeeze
654 posts
jaygee
1,990 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
Once I see the calls over a period of 12 months I can judge the sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, monthly and annual returns, the monthly standard deviation, Alpha v S&P500, etc, etc... I can also see/measure the correlation analysis versus the usual gauges.
So I take it there is no link or such evidence just puff & air waffle.
Squeeze
654 posts
Info Seeker
23 posts
I am not telling you anything. I don't know who you are and you certainly didn't mention it to me, but if you are a fellow scientist then what I said should not conflict with your knowledge. If, however, you are not a scientist but follow science and the people that clarify its roots to the world or indeed discover new things in life, then what I said is just how the scientific world works. Forgive me but I am a scientist not a mind reader. You also don't know me so logically you cannot assume to know more than I do about scientists.
I only tried to respond to your comment and tried to show you how I looked at the man from my perspective. I tried, you didn't have to accept and that is something completely up to you. You said it best, we agree to disagree. That is not bad at all. In fact it is very civilized and I thank you for that.
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
lol
Squeeze
654 posts
Guest
IP XX.XXX.142.34
Squeeze
654 posts
Taking this further you're so adamant regarding your "modelling" as you term it but have not tested it live or back tested. I'm sorry to say this but you're a dreamer and in a bit of a mess aren't you? Well if that's the end of your contribution then fine, however, if you continue to post I guess everyone (who even gives you a moment's thought I'm sure there's many who see your posts and chuckle or sigh) will just issue a one word response - "proof?"
frx_trader
928 posts
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
BenMario
160 posts
Hes been losing couple of hundreds on his fxcm micro account. Spare him some signal so his account can grow back to $1000. Hes been desperately asking you for your signals for weeks now if i recall correctly. It would be kind of you to help the old man living his final days on charity.
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
i never wanted to mention how important your calls were for the same reason...i did not want you to feel any pressure...but when you said you will leave this forum i just had to speak out
Spreadbetter
1,270 posts
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
i read your post yesterday somewhere when you said you will sell after the 50 points movement...i wanted to short too...but i dont know why i didnt..and i read your post late too or i would have..was short of confidence............good trade i must say!
regme
26 posts
BenMario
160 posts
Spreadbetter
1,270 posts
Spreadbetter
1,270 posts
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
yes i know i need to work on my trading plan..................but taking calls from mr loaded has worked for me everytime...so please stop defying the obvious..please..i beg you..stop! :P
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
and what is the point of a trading plan without knowing the direction...
Mong00se
81 posts
Spreadbetter
1,270 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
BenMario
160 posts
Squeeze
654 posts
BenMario
160 posts
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
i don't know what you are trying to say spready...........only yesterday i was saying how i jumped into trading too soon...without completing my research or finding an edge..so i am not going to argue with you guys because you have a point ..i have been extremely lucky and a little smart too because i realized real quick who is the comedian and who means business
Spreadbetter
1,270 posts
Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
trailing stops are used and never moved, if you experience a drawdown of 2% in a day (3 sessions) you're locked out. This game, from your side, is an exercise in risk a d probability ????..
easier english would be appreciated
Bakker
573 posts
The best answer will be the winner of this long and tiresome discourse.
Guest
IP XX.XXX.160.145
As it has been pointed out sentiment of the millions of people who are the market is what moves the market.
People have behaviors and those behaviors get expressed as sentiment. Repetitive behavior produces repetitive patterns, that is why patterns have probabilities of outcome.
Research some of the Authors out there who have written on the subject and read their books. What you see real time will be explained as principles. This is an interpretive skill and takes quite some time to get a handle on it,
Guest
IP XX.XXX.160.145
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Info Seeker
23 posts
So you don't get it. Let me elaborate a little. Scientists ALWAYS seek. They seek knowledge, truth, facts, and most importantly new information. That's why when you become a scientist you have to keep abreast of what is taking place after you get your formal education. That is exactly why there are specialized scientific journals. In fact, it is embedded in human nature. Have you heard the adage 'you learn something new everyday'? Man keeps learning new things from the moment at birth to the day he dies. It may not be direct learning every time but it is learning on a subconscious level all the time. It is just that we, scientists, like it to be a little more pronounced.
I did a little digging and I found out where you're from and since I highly respect your country and region of the world for what is being achieved from an EM point of view, I'll stop it right here. Plus need I remind you that we agreed to disagree. Let's leave it at that.
Oh, and please don't comment back saying I called you fat. For all I know you could be as thin as a pencil. It was just an example, but I'm sure you got that one.
Best of luck to you in your trading.
Info Seeker
23 posts
Sentiment from a psychology POV is a valid concept of the psyche, but in trading terms it cannot be measured. How can you trade sentiment? When you hear of something that gives you a certain feeling that drives YOUR sentiment, how can you be sure others don't have the opposite feeling depending on their own interpretation hence driving their own sentiment the other way. Different events affect various people differently. It is when there's an outside force, convincing enough to let the masses believe what they want them to believe that sentiment can align but not without dear cost. Just look at the many poor slobs that rode the yen trade recently thinking it would never end. That was sentiment. When the honchos were done they pulled the rug all of a sudden and the sentiment changed in a heart beat and it headed the other way back with a lot of positions from the masses being squeezed.
Retail money by itself won't move the market. Retail needs liquidity and this latter comes from the Market Makers who will give you everything for free, charts, education, news feeds, the shirt off their backs because they really like you? Or maybe because they make 1 pip spread off of your mini lot position? Come on. Where is your common sense? The market moves because there needs to be a market in the first place to serve the big picture, the interests of world trade and commerce, credit swaps, and most importantly manipulating debts, hence not for the benefit of the retail trader. Retail traders are merely the loan providers that don't know they won't get paid back, but are always willing to loan again because they always think they will get paid. That's why the majority of retail traders fail. They have no idea what they're doing but are encompassed in a dream of making it rich by pressing buttons whilst they are in their pajamas in front of their screens with their eyes, red though they may be, glued for fear they'll miss the split second that could cause a margin call.
The political dynamics, big interests, huge gambles and most importantly GREED is what drives the market. Just like in wars. Don't get sideways-ed by the news most of which is fabricated or exaggerated to drive the market to what the news originator intended. Why do you think Bernanke, Trichet, Draghi, Carney and the rest are considered most powerful people? They can move the world the way they want at anytime with a few vague words that get interpreted as sentiment. With very few exceptions, I've yet to hear one of them say clearly what their intention is. They carefully word their statements in vague ways to confuse and to give them lee way to deny should time prove they were wrong. That is why it is not important what they say on decision day, but you have to wait for the minutes to decipher the possible true meaning days later or.
To be successful in trading, you have to be aware of the world's history and the Macro dynamics of the world, including macro economics, geography, sociology, demography to name a few of the ingredients which will give you a general understanding of the big picture, then it is your job to find an edge, for in reality, it will always be a matter of probability which is derived from math. I dare say if you can calculate probabilities reasonable correctly on the fly it may help you as a day trader given that every thing else is in place.
Trading is not an easy thing to do, but great marketing efforts have certainly made it a deceivingly alluring business for the masses who are by nature looking for the cheap (better yet free), easy, and quick. Nothing in life is free, except the air you breath which is on its way to be so polluted it may be taxed. If you want to trade successfully, you have to have common sense, be willing to learn, study and ask questions that are hard to answer, and perhaps most importantly be willing to accept hard truths and when you think you're ready, you have to absolve yourself from any thing that can drag you down including negative emotions and very positive ones.
But whatever you do, please don't just get in head first without being prepared, and if things don't go your way, don't blame anyone but yourself, not your wife, your kids, your friends or especially your circumstances because YOU were the one who pressed the button. Plus if you've done your homework right, things will go your way the next time and will only improve as you keep at it.
p.s. This was meant sincerely not just to our mysterious guest but to any one who may stumble on it. Please don't read it if you're drunk or operating heavy machinery, the consequences for some brains could be drastic.
Guest
IP XX.XXX.160.145
Spreadbetter
1,270 posts
Wrt being "neutral" on the euro positions change
Spreadbetter
1,270 posts
There's a site called forex factory that just might have covered this subject many times. Try Steve Nison's books, you won't go wrong.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=350832
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
In fractal analysis the unit for any given pair is the current monthly bar and like all time frames the unitary or monthly time frame has a range and it is important to keep that in mind. For instance the monthly bar fluctuates vertically but these vertical movements (up and down within the current monthly bar) is what expresses as 4 weekly bars, 20 daily bars 120 4 hour bars etc in the same period. Now it would be irrational to expect certain movements at the end of a period and just as we have in soccer (BTW Nigeria is champion of Africa) there is always a period of build up from end to end of the playing field or playing range. This is one reason why I think those who take too literally the idea that fundamentals move markets (without knowledge of the actual mechanics of that movement) lack a lot of common sense and are at a considerable disadvantage (especially in forming expectations and implementing trading plans).
You need to wait for the month to end (speaking to long term traders and risk averse day traders) and for the market to initialize (yes stupid - the market initializes very simple). The process involves the recalibration or repositioning if you like of the pit trader pivots on the monthly scale (just like day traders see every tradeday on that scale). This is an important part of trading sense. Those pivots or averages have very important meaning in the economics of large sized traders and therefore in there strategy and actions (I mean those who move markets) - in any month price is either trading above or below the initial average established at the start and deviates away positively or negatively to reach specific lines on the scale. Similarly, towards the end of the month or at the end of the month price tends to revert to the mean in retracement whether it had traveled up or down relative to current average and this is one way to get your bearing and work out possible pivots (simple is it not? But comes from real knowledge of how price moves) - this happens every single month and please close that dropped jaw - do you mean you never noticed or checked? In all markets whether for tomatoes or the forex traders take their bearing per period from averages - we see it done here dynamically each period (including daily or even hourly periods though far less obvious).
Of course trading is not for everyone and it is not high brow econometrics that makes a trader. It is the feel for the market and this is what I am talking about or at least an aspect of it.
Now this is not mean reversion at all - it is an aspect of the mechanics that define mean reverting markets but what I just described is not mean reversion as mean reversion theory itself is more, i.e. far more powerful, simpler and profitable as a concept. However, just to let you know that the actions of markets are rational - very rational and nothing at all random if you manage to appreciate chaos and at the same time have the patience to understand fractal geometry and modern wave theory in order to track the market and trade - which is different from economic analysis which I grant for the most part is irrelevant to actual trading decisions (and in which I am trained and fully certified and therefore know where and when it does not apply).
Will not go into further into details but observe what I have here outlined and consider the implications. In addition, observe how in all cases we are talking volatility, deviation, mean reversion, unit, fractal (and fractions), time dimensions, chaos, etc. Also important to add that mean reversion theory is so powerful and precise exactly because it is the only true chaotic theory of the market - one that comprehends all events and therefore explains the market exactly without the need for extraneous considerations - i.e. what we call exogenous events (such as eco events, fundamentals and all that crap). Why? Because it will be double counting and would most likely lead the uninitiated to second guess the market. Causing the theoretician (that is how I refer to one with exceptional insights to markets NOT trader) to take his eyes off the ball (watching the man and not the ball is a technical failure in soccer - and yes soccer can be used it is a chaotic system just like the market as is population growth, the weather, GDP growth, etc). The market therefore is transparent - it is our lack of grasp that leads to enormous confusion and the silly emotions we allow to overcome us. The only thing that can make a trader succeed is KNOWLEDGE of how the market is layed out, how price moves within that layout, why and when. In other words the mastery of the concepts in chaos. Nothing else dolt - like it or not - only those with that knowledge will thrive (whether they have it intuitively or explicitly). Of course it is the mathematics of imprecise but systematic motion or chaos that underpins all that knowledge. Only God knows the limits - but faithful humans may partake of the meal of grace regularly and without hindrance if and only if they stoop to know.
Info Seeker
23 posts
These probability assessments you talk about should be based on solid facts, not manifestations of possible action based on behavior of past events. In physics, it is believed that if you went back in time and changed one little detail about an event that took place, that change could alter the future in any number of ways and to any extent.
If you can guarantee me that when a known pattern occurs on a chart with all its details exactly like all the previous times it occurred giving the exact same results I may consider these patterns more. But the only thing that is constant in the market is change, it is always in flux, which is why you keep hearing "depending on market condition" which is why these patterns may appear to be the same on the outside but in fact they are in most cases completely different.
I must clarify that some patterns spring from the harmonious nature of the universe and are by themselves instigators, or bell ringers, if you will. These are the ones I do study for when combined with specific elements can do wonders to one's account. The gist of what I am saying is when all things fit AS PREDICTED and you take a trade then watch out boy we're heading to party. It is just too sad that most traders look for these patterns and scour for them because they think it's the way to trade only to be disappointed most of the time. They see something that is really not there.
Let me go back to another important aspect. Common sense. If these patterns are so successful, everybody and their grandmother would be trading nothing but patterns and all would be millionaires. It is not that simple. Keep in mind, the simpler the pattern the less reliable it is especially in the lower TF's. The more complex the pattern, the harder you can see it, the more reliable it becomes in any TF. That is why trading requires training and practice to develop an eye for the market as well as a feel for it.
Good trading to you.
Guest
IP XX.XXX.160.145
People will always trade their money and place their investments for emotional reasons. Human behavior does not change and the sentiment swings that drive the market positioning repeat over and over.
Most of the posters on this website think they are trading logically, but the reality is that subconscious emotions drive the decision process, and that is why they lose.
Believe what you want, I will continue to trade my way. These posts were for anyone looking for some way to trade that works. The rest is up to those people to do their own homework.
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Casimir
40 posts
For reference, I have taught MBA students at a top program and done doctoral work under guys who were protégés of Gene Fama, Merton Miller, and Ben Bernanke. Yet I don't presume to speak with half your fatuous presumption. Nor do I know any intelligent person who does. (That would include Fama and Bernanke).
Guest
IP XX.XX.112.165
Timetraveler
480 posts
His Ph.D. thesis, which concluded that stock price movements are unpredictable(!) and follow a random walk(!!!), was published in January, 1965 issue of the Journal of Business, entitled "The Behavior of Stock Market Prices". That work was subsequently rewritten into a less technical article, "Random Walks In Stock Market Prices",[2] which was published in the Financial Analysts Journal in 1965 and Institutional Investor in 1968."
Wiki Benoit Mandelbrot. ...discovering the Mandelbrot set in 1979 coined the term FRACTAL and... "said that things typically considered to be "rough", a "mess" or "chaotic", like clouds or shorelines, actually had a "degree of order".(a.k.a chaos is not random after all).
***In 1996 Fama was teaching The Distribution of the Daily Difference of the Logarithm of Stock Prices - Probability theory and stochastic processes having Mandelbrot as an advisor(all these after 15mins research on wikipedia and a brain aware of the terms) proving he's smart enough to understand how obsolete a Ph.D. thesis might become and adopt. But that's not the issue as high English expression was never the issue.
The issue here is that the only person here talking about chaos and fractal theories screaming about the non randomness of the market is LG who's being opposed by alleged professionals with years of experience saying that psyche numbers, fibo statics and fundamentals drive the market. And you have the nerve to challenge his schooling when we all know that titles can be bought(p.ex. Bush jr and G.Papandreou hold a Harvard degree
No wonder he generously throws RIP all around...
Info Seeker
23 posts
I enjoyed our little interaction and hope that others picked up something from it that can contribute to their own trading path.
Spreadbetter
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Spreadbetter
1,270 posts
Spreadbetter
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Loadedgun
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BenMario
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Spreadbetter
1,270 posts
BenMario
160 posts
Loadedgun
2,914 posts
Loadedgun
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BenMario
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Spreadbetter
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Loadedgun
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Fx Hiflyer
319 posts
Guest
IP XXX.XX.74.47
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