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Ready To Buy Dollars?
[B]Trade Desk Thoughts l TheLFB News l Oct 01 08 l 17:10 EDT[/B] Buy Dollars? Whether traders think it is right or wrong, good or bad, it is what it is, and things are changing here as the market goes into a possible move to buy the dollar on the strength of a political Bill getting passed. Things have to change, just as they have done before in times of crisis, as a new rule book gets written for how things are going to be. The four hour charts have moved to dollar-long, and as such the best bet here is to straddle the Usd. Go long dollars with full lots, against the weakest major. Go short dollars with half the regular number of lots against the strongest major. The Alerts are posted that way, and are ready for whatever the market now brings. Things are changing right now, in the face of dramatic fundamental swings in what is seen as fair value on debt. Trading against this next move, in the face of this fundamental of a global change, and with regional Reserve and Rate re-balancing and liquidity hunting going on, will be hard work. Like it or not, the dollar may get bought in strong numbers. The ECB may be forced to review their price-stability stance, the Bank of England may have to address a consumer that is not consuming. The Bank of Japan will struggle to hold rates now that global markets are reducing the purchase of Japanese exports. The Australian economy is going into a rate reduction cycle. None of the major pairs at this point in time can be linked to much each day outside of the all dominant Usd issues. If the dollar breaks it may not be out of desire, it may be out of need. Parking our opinion on where it should go is the call, and just trade the dollar based chart with solid money management. If it all ends up as a dollar negative we will see it first in those 4 hour charts as well. Believable or not, the dollar looks to be getting stronger if this Bill passes, and it may then take at least a quarter before 'normality' returns to these forex pairs, and links get re-built. The commodity based links will come back stronger than ever, just give them time, and at that time, in Quarter 1 of 2009 maybe, reality may kick in that U.S. debt levels are unsustainable. Until then any commodity link may be tenuous day-to-day as the whole global market re-aligns to fair value on the dollar, and to debt. Stick to the 4 hour signals, and if the market moves either way, go that way, no waiting for it to come back. Straddle the dollar each day, with good money management, and let equities, treasuries, gold, and oil take care of themselves. Right now this market is running a damage limitation exercise, and it may take three months to get through it. It is what it is. It has done exactly the same before, and will do the same again when the next crisis hits. Ready to buy the dollar if the chart says so? ...Good! [IMG]https://www.thelfb-forex.com/uploadedImages/home_page/20%20vide.jpg[/IMG] [B]Play the Daily Market Video Wrap[/B] [url]http://www.thelfb-forex.com/content.aspx?id=34534[/url] [B]TheLFB[/B] Copyright © 2007 - 2008 TheLFB. All rights reserved.
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