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US first quarter GDP growth is an annualised 1.6%, well below the 2.5% consensus expectation, but inflation is hotter with the core PCE deflator up 3.7% annualised versus 3.4% expected. This suggests, assuming no revisions to monthly data, that the core PCE deflator will come in above 0.4% tomorrow rather than the current 0.3%MoM consensus forecast. ...
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The economy is slowing down, but the outlook is not as bleak as the GDP headline figure suggests. Instead, the report tells a nuanced story of where things stand. Why it matters: The first quarter's 1.6% annualized growth rate confirms that the economy is not reaccelerating to start 2024. • Meanwhile, there are warning signs that inflation rebounded, which ...
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