Date | 9:03pm | Currency | Impact | Detail | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Graph | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9:03pm | Actual | |||||||||
Tue May 7 | ||||||||||
Tue May 7 | 12:30am | AUD | Cash Rate | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.35% | ||||
AUD | RBA Monetary Policy Statement | |||||||||
AUD | RBA Rate Statement | |||||||||
1:30am | AUD | RBA Press Conference | ||||||||
1:45am | CHF | Unemployment Rate | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | |||||
2:00am | EUR | German Factory Orders m/m | -0.4% | 0.4% | -0.8% | |||||
EUR | German Trade Balance | 22.3B | 22.4B | 21.4B | ||||||
GBP | Halifax HPI m/m | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.9% | ||||||
2:45am | EUR | French Prelim Private Payrolls q/q | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.1% | |||||
EUR | French Trade Balance | -5.5B | -5.0B | -5.6B | ||||||
3:00am | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves | 720B | 716B | ||||||
4:30am | GBP | Construction PMI | 53.0 | 50.4 | 50.2 | |||||
5:00am | EUR | Retail Sales m/m | 0.8% | 0.6% | -0.3% | |||||
10:00am | CAD | Ivey PMI | 63.0 | 58.1 | 57.5 | |||||
EUR | German Buba President Nagel Speaks | |||||||||
10:06am | USD | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism | 41.8 | 44.1 | 43.2 | |||||
10:56am | NZD | GDT Price Index | 1.8% | 0.1% | ||||||
11:30am | EUR | German Buba President Nagel Speaks | ||||||||
3:00pm | USD | Consumer Credit m/m | 6.3B | 14.8B | 15.0B | |||||
3:30pm | CAD | Gov Council Member Rogers Speaks | ||||||||
11:35pm | JPY | 10-y Bond Auction | 0.75|3.8 |
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post: Fed’s Kashkari: Most Likely Scenario is We Stay Put for Extended Period on Rates post: KASHKARI: JOBS REPORT FRIDAY WAS SOFTER THAN EXPECTED BUT NOT SOFT post: Fed’s Kashkari: in March I Jotted Down Two Rate Cuts for This Year; Possible Will Stay at 2, or Go to 1 or 0 Rate Cuts for June Sep post: FED'S KASHKARI: IF WE SEE A MARKED LABOR WEAKENING, IT COULD SPUR A CUT. post: KASHKARI: WOULD NEED TO SEE MULTIPLE READINGS ON INFLATION TO BE CONFIDENT TO CUT RATES
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Over the past few years, I have published a series of essays assessing where we are in our inflation fight and highlighting some important questions policymakers are facing. My most recent essay was in February of this year, where I questioned how much monetary policy was actually restraining demand. This essay is an update to that commentary, and I now examine the current stance of monetary policy in more detail.1 I will argue that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has tightened policy significantly, compared with prior cycles, both in absolute terms and relative to the market’s understanding of neutral. But I will also observe that the housing market is proving more resilient to that tight policy than it generally has in the past. Given that housing is a key channel through which monetary policy affects the economy, its resilience raises questions about whether policymakers and the market are misperceiving neutral, at least in the near term. It is possible that once the reopening dynamics of the post-COVID economy have concluded, the macro forces that drove the low-rate environment that existed before the pandemic will reemerge, pulling neutral back down. But the FOMC must set policy based on where neutral is in the short run to achieve our dual mandate goals in a reasonable period of time. The uncertainty about where neutral is today creates a challenge for policymakers. post: FED'S KASHKARI: HOUSING MARKET IS PROVING MORE RESILIENT TO TIGHT MONETARY POLICY THAN IT HAS BEEN IN THE PAST post: FED'S KASHKARI: IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HOUSING MARKET RESILIENCE MEANS THE NEUTRAL RATE HAS BEEN PUSHED HIGHER, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. post: FED'S KASHKARI: I QUESTION POLICY RESTRICTIVENESS, GIVEN THE INFLATION DATA. post: KASHKARI: FED MUST SET POLICY BASED ON SHORT-RUN NEUTRAL RATE
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post: FED'S KASHKARI: TOO SOON TO DECLARE WE ARE STALLED OUT ON INFLATION. post: FED'S KASHKARI: IF WE NEED TO HOLD RATES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD, OR RAISE RATES, WE WILL DO THAT. post: FED'S KASHKARI: INFLATION WHERE IT IS NOW IS NOT THE NEW NORMAL; THE FED WILL ACHIEVE 2% INFLATION post: KASHKARI: RATE CUT THIS YEAR IS STILL A POSSIBILITY
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Japan may have to take action against any disorderly, speculative-driven foreign exchange moves, the government's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Tuesday, reinforcing ...
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EURUSD spiked late last week above the 55 and 200 daily Moving Averages and close to the 0.786 retracement at 1.0824 before retracing back below the 0.618 retracement at 1.0776. ...