Date | 8:02pm | Currency | Impact | Detail | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Graph | ||
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8:02pm | Actual | |||||||||
Fri May 24 | ||||||||||
Fri May 24 | 2:00am | EUR | German Final GDP q/q | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||
GBP | Retail Sales m/m | -2.3% | -0.5% | -0.2% | ||||||
3:45am | CHF | SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks | ||||||||
Day 2 | All | G7 Meetings | ||||||||
5:15am | EUR | German Buba President Nagel Speaks | ||||||||
5:44am | CNY | Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y | -27.9% | -26.1% | ||||||
8:30am | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m | -0.6% | 0.3% | -0.2% | |||||
CAD | Retail Sales m/m | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | ||||||
CAD | Corporate Profits q/q | 0.6% | 2.7% | |||||||
USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | ||||||
USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.7% | -0.9% | 0.9% | ||||||
9:35am | USD | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | ||||||||
10:00am | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 69.1 | 67.8 | 67.4 | |||||
USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | 3.3% | 3.5% |
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Thank you for the invitation to be here and speak to you today.1 I want to step away from shorter-term questions about the economic outlook and monetary policy to delve into a subject of longer-term significance—r*. While there are many concepts of r*, I interpret it to be the real policy interest rate that is neither stimulating nor restricting economic activity with inflation anchored at the central bank's inflation target. In the short term, policymakers must judge whether a given policy setting is restrictive or otherwise, and while this judgment is made with some idea of r*, a number of factors can influence the economy in the near term so that the current setting of policy usually differs from the value of r*. At the same time, policymakers continually update their view of the appropriate value of r*. Recently, for example, discussions have focused on whether or not r* has risen, which has important implications for the conduct of monetary policy. For the purposes of this discussion, I am going to be talking about the long-run, real value of r*, when inflation and employment have reached the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) goals. Because of that, an estimate of r* points toward where monetary policy is headed over the longer run. This is important for policymakers deciding the best way to get there and also for investors and other members of the public who make decisions in the near term based on their expectations of future economic conditions. Much has been written on this topic, and different methods have been developed to estimate r*. My goal today is not to debate which statistical estimate of r* is best but rather describe what I believe are the economic factors behind the secul post: <=USD>:*WALLER: ONLY TIME WILL TELL HOW IMPORTANT FISCAL WILL BE FOR R* *WALLER: FINANCING PRESSURES MAY PUSH R* HIGHER IN COMING YEARS *WALLER: HELPFUL TO LOOK AT REAL 10Y YIELD FOR MARKET VIEW ON R* *WALLER: FACTORS THAT LOWERED NEUTRAL RATE MAY REVERSE IN FUTURE
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Retail sales decreased 0.2% to $66.4 billion in March. Sales were down in seven of nine subsectors and were led by decreases at furniture, home furnishings, electronics and ...
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The dollar is paring yesterday's advance that was spurred by the rise in US rates following the preliminary PMI, which reached its best level in two years. The survey also picked ...
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post: Japan Top Currency Diplomat Kanda: Told G7 That Speculative And Excessive FX Moves Were Undesirable, Need Monitoring - Must Respond Appropriately To Excessive, Disorderly Moves In FX post: Japan Top Currency Diplomat Kanda: Declines To Comment On Recent JPY Moves - Japan Is Ready To Take Appropriate Action If There Are Excessive Moves In FX Market
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post: ECB'S NAGEL: THE ECB CAN PROBABLY CUT RATES IN JUNE. post: ECB'S NAGEL: AFTER JUNE, WE PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT ON THE NEXT MOVE UNTIL SEPTEMBER. post: ECB'S NAGEL: THERE NO AUTOPILOT ON RATE CUTS. post: ECB'S NAGEL: THE WAGE UPTICK WASN'T A SURPRISE. post: ECB'S NAGEL: CORE AND HEADLINE INFLATION ARE BOTH DECELERATING.